7/23 -We are up 50$ in profit which is nothing to scoff at!! We had the earnings crush we wanted, but unfortunately after earnings, our delta was more powerful than the theta, meaning the downward move from 531 at close on 7/20 before earnings is now much higher than we are today–7/23, closing at 515. There is still a 68.3% chance that the trade will finish in the green so I’m going to continue to hold out for $84.50 and there are 28 days before expiration. Hoping we get to $84.50 early next week if the stock returns to the 530 range, or we’ll probably just close on Friday 7/30, which is 21 days before expiration. I like to close at either 50% of premium received, or 21 days to expiration… whichever comes first.
7/21 – IV Crush has happened (see bottom panel below). Set a Good Till Cancelled Closing Order for 50% of the premium you collected yesterday. For example if you collected $169, set a closing order of $84.50 and wait.
7/20 – Netflix Earnings Iron Condor – “IV CRUSH”. Netflix has earnings today 7/20 at the close and a high IVR – 37.2%. (This means options are expensive which is great if we’re selling!) Looking to enter a 5 dollar wide Aug 20 iron condor before their earnings 490 / 495 / 585 / 590. It’s slightly bullish. Trying to collect at least 1.66 (⅓ the width of the strikes). It just filled for 1.69. Both sold strikes are around the 21 delta. If you think Netflix will stay where it is after earnings, or wont exceed 585, or fall below 495, this might be the trade for you. Depending on where you’re filled, it uses around $331 of buying power, and has a 71% chance of taking away about $84.50 in profits.
The Trade for 8/20 Expiration
- Buy 490 Put
- Sell 495 Put
- Sell 585 Call
- Buy 590 Call
For more info on iron condors, check out some of our prior posts on the topic:
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